RESULTS of the 2025 Philippine senatorial election reflect a growing discontent among voters toward President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.’s leadership, as opposition figures and Duterte allies claimed half of the 12 Senate seats up for grabs, analysts said.
Six candidates from the administration-backed Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas entered the “Magic 12”: Erwin Tulfo, Panfilo “Ping” Lacson, Vicente “Tito” Sotto III, Pia Cayetano, Camille Villar, and Sen. Lito Lapid.
The remaining six seats, however, were split between four Duterte-aligned figures — Christopher “Bong” Go, Sen. Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, SAGIP party-list Rep. Rodante Marcoleta, and Sen. Imee Marcos — and two traditional opposition voices, former senators Benigno “Bam” Aquino and Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan.
In an interview with the Varsitarian, political strategist Alan German described the outcome as a reflection of the President’s declining popularity, which dipped from 42% to 25% between February and March this year, based on Pulse Asia data, while disapproval climbed to 53%.
“I think that the President’s popularity was very, very low coming into the midterm,” he said. “Clearly, the people are not happy with the current administration. The way they’re running things, and they made it felt through the polls.”
German pointed to two key turning points behind the public’s souring perception: the impeachment case against Vice President Sara Duterte and the transfer of former president Rodrigo Duterte’s case to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
“Nagkaroon sila (voters) ng rallying point,” he said. “It’s almost reminiscent of the Leni campaign, it became a crusade and, again, a powerful motivator for voting is single-nail messaging and what we call alert messaging — scaring people into voting for a candidate.”
“I think the interplay is more of a protest vote–I think the interplay is more of a rejection of the administration.”
German also noted that many votes were protest-driven, stemming from the fallout between the once-unified Marcos and Duterte camps under the “UniTeam” alliance.
“Sina Bam Aquino at Kiko, galit ‘yan kay Marcos. … The pro-Marcos (voters) probably filled in their slates and thought, ‘Sino ba rito ang kaaway ni Duterte? Sina Bam Aquino at si Kiko, anti-Duterte ‘yan.’ Nagkaroon ng perfect confluence, perfect flux. And that’s how the results turned out.”
How did Kiko, Bam win?
According to Anthony Borja from De La Salle University’s Department of Political Science and Development, it was the long absence of the opposition in the national political scene that helped Aquino and Pangilinan appear as neutral options amid the Marcos-Duterte feud.
“They managed to stay above the Duterte-Marcos feud and were probably considered by more moderate or undecided voters from both camps as safe and credible list-fillers,” he said.
Aquino and Pangilinan’s victory may also be attributed to their clear strategy of shifting focus away from partisan branding and toward more practical, relatable issues.
“It’s clear that there was a determined effort to make this election not about color, not about affiliation, but about pragmatism,” German said. They concentrated on the gut issues: pagkain, edukasyon, trabaho — hindi nila kinulayan.”
Celebrities, dynasties
German said the defeat of celebrity candidates and political dynasty figures, alongside the rise of progressives, could signal a shift in voter behavior in the Philippines.
“Who would ever think in our lifetime we would see an election where Bong Revilla would lose? And yet he did,” he said. “So I think we are turning the corner. I think people are now making that important distinction between awareness and conversion.”
“It’s no longer enough for Filipinos to be aware of a candidate. Ang tanong ngayon, hindi na lang, ‘Sino ka ba?’ — now, they’re going to the next level. ‘Bakit kita iboboto?’”
Some well-known names from political families also failed to win in their strongholds. Sen. Cynthia Villar lost in her bid for Las Piñas’ congressional seat to independent challenger Mark Santos, who won 115,757 votes against Villar’s 83,975.
Actor-turned-senator Bong Revilla Jr. fell short of a Senate comeback, placing 14th with 12,027,845 votes — two spots out of the Magic 12. Fellow celebrity Phillip Salvador, backed by the Duterte bloc, finished 19th with 10,241,491 votes.
TV host Willie Revillame, once projected by OCTA Research to land between ninth and 20th, ultimately ranked 22nd with 8,568,924 votes.
Progressive candidates also made gains, such as former state auditor Heidi Mendoza, who, despite being a first-time and independent contender, placed 21st with 8,759,732 votes. Labor lawyer Luke Espiritu saw notable improvement, jumping from 34th in 2022 to 29th this year with 6,481,413 votes.
While these trends show potential for change, German warned that the shift is just beginning.
“Maybe this is more than a recalibration,” he said. “I think this is honest to goodness the beginning, the initial sparks of an awakening wherein the Filipino voter is now looking for ‘resibo.’ I think naghahanap na ng resibo ang mga Pinoy voters.”
However, according to Jean Franco, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines Diliman, it’s still premature to say whether the electorate is truly moving toward issue-based voting.
“It is too early to say that we have now transitioned to issue-based voting. We have to work harder and wait for succeeding elections. Electoral reforms must also be high on the agenda of the next Congress, if we want issue voting to be normalized,” she said.
The new senators will join returning members as part of the 20th Congress, which is scheduled to convene in July. Miguel Angelo B. Marco with reports from Ralent M. Penilla and Amanda Luella A. Rivera
