WHILE six years have passed since the creation of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), peace remains elusive with violent extremism and clan rivalries still rampant ahead of the 2025 midterm elections, officials said.
In a press briefing on Aug. 22, Francisco Lara Jr., executive director of the Council for Conflict and Climate Action (CCAA), said various forms of violence—including land disputes, illegal drug activities, extremism and clan feuding—continued to trouble the region.
“From 2011 to 2020, when terrorism and violent extremism surpassed insurgency and rebellion as the leading cause of violence in the Bangsamoro, we observed [that] feuding over land and natural resources was overwhelmed by clan feuding over political office and political resources,” Lara said.
The CCAA’s report, titled “Appeasing Violence, Conjuring Peace,” identified clan feuds as the primary driver of violence in Bangsamoro, particularly in the provinces of Lanao and Maguindanao.
Asst. Prof. Christian Esguerra of the Department of Journalism moderated the CCAA forum that presented the results of the report to the public.
In the foreword of the report, Sidney Jones, senior advisor at the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC), emphasized that Maguindanao, located within BARMM, remained the epicenter of violence.
“Killings linked to identity conflict are on the rise. The epicenter is Maguindanao, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) heartland, and a major perpetrator is the MILF itself,” Jones said.
The report found a rise in violence during election periods, with 242 incidents of violence recorded in May 2022 and 273 records in October 2023 during the barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan elections.
“The big question is, will this continue up to 2025? There are no signs at the moment that it will stop,” Lara said.
Rido, or clan feuding in Mindanao, has evolved from being land-based to being politically motivated due to the lucrative internal revenue allotment (IRA) tied to holding government office, according to Lara.
“The amounts of the IRA mean that the political office, landing an office, is the major economic prize that everyone is fighting for. Hindi na lupa […] So more of the killings right now are ridos that we call political rido,” Lara added.
The establishment of the autonomous Bangsamoro parliament was one of the key provisions of the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL), a peace agreement brokered between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the national government in 2018.
Since the peace talks in 2014, incidents involving the MILF and rido-related incidents have fluctuated, according to the crisis monitoring group.
The 2015 Mamasapano massacre in Maguindanao, wherein 18 MILF rebels were killed during a Philippine National Police Special Action Force (PNP-SAF) operation, was one of the violent episodes that delayed the conclusion of the peace process.
According to CCAA report, the years 2011, 2014 to 2016, 2019, and 2022 saw the highest number of deaths related to rido. The CCAA attributed the deadliness of these feuds to clans’ ties with armed groups and access to illicit weapons, resulting in 826 cases of clan violence 2011 to 2023.
Meanwhile, between 2019 and 2022, there was a decline in violent incidents, coinciding with the decommissioning of the MILF, with only minor incidents occurring in Maguing, Lanao del Sur, and Maguindanao during military operations, according to the group.
The upward trend in violence began again in late 2022, which the group attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic, which also caused the postponement of the first parliamentary elections in BARMM.
“The internal armed struggles involving MILF, MNLF, BIFF, DI and CNN are bound to intensify as armed groups directly intervene in electoral contests at local and regional level,” the triennial report read.
‘Conflict is ending’
According to Carlito Galvez Jr, presidential adviser of the peace process, the absence of Abu Sayyaf and Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) may pave the way for peaceful elections.
“Marami pong mga Abu Sayyaf, marami po tayong mga kapatid na Maute and BIFF that decided already to lay down their firearms and also reconcile with the government,” Galvez said in a press conference on Thursday, Sept. 5. “Wala na tayong Abu Sayyaf at BIFF at tinatawag nating terrorist group that can spoil the election.”
Galvez also noted the reduction in major conflicts since the 2017 Marawi siege, claiming that the Bangsamoro is increasingly embracing peace and reconciliation with the government.
“The conflict is now ending, and there is now a new beginning of peace and development in Mindanao,” he said.
According to Galvez, another batch of 14,000 MILF militants, along with 2,000 firearms, are set to be decommissioned between 2024 and 2025. This would be the third wave of decommissioning since it began in 2015.
According to the Independent Decommissioning Body, 26,132 MILF rebels had surrendered, accounting for 65 percent of the total MILF rebel population. Additionally, 4,625 firearms had been seized.
However, Lara’s group and some lawmakers have raised concerns over discrepancies between the numbers of decommissioned combatants and weapons surrendered.
“We are very skeptical about the decommissioning process. In fact, we have declared it as problematic that it will not lead to the diminution in the number of weapons in the hands of various groups,” Lara said.
As of August 2024, BARMM’s regional parliamentary government is led by the Bangsamoro Transition Authority, which consists of 80 members. Official leaders are expected to take over after the upcoming polls, the first since the BOL’s ratification.
Failure of elections?
Lara expressed concern about the possibility of an election failure in the region, warning of the consequences of extending the incumbents’ terms under the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA).
“The problem with the declaration of a failure of elections is that it will lead to more violence. But some peoples’ agenda is actually to push toward the failure of elections. That is why all of us are pushing to make sure that does not happen,” Lara said.
According to the International Crisis Group Asia, 41 out of the 80 members of the BTA were nominated by former MILF militants.
Should there be a failure of elections in BARMM, Article 7 Section 20 of the BOL states that the vacancy shall be filled by an appointed member of parliament.
Galvez acknowledged the possibility of violent incidents occurring during the 2025 polls but remained optimistic that a failure of elections in BARMM would not occur, citing peace covenants between political families in the region.
This year, the BARMM’s Peace, Security, and Reconciliation Office mediated the resolution of 13 clan feuds.
The parliamentary elections were initially set for 2022, but former president Rodrigo Duterte postponed them due to the Covid-19 pandemic, resulting in a three-year extension.
“I’m sure the elections in 2025 will be very peaceful. […] Maybe siguro may minimal violence tayo, but I think this is controllable,” Galvez added. Kaela Patricia B. Gabriel
