A POLITICAL survey and an exit poll showing presidential candidate Fernando Poe Jr. winning the election stirred up a storm on campus because they were ostensibly done by UST professors.
Proberz Research and Consultancy Inc. (PRCI), the firm that conducted the national surveys, was questioned by other pollsters for the credibility of its polls. UST officials were alarmed when the Philippine Star reported that the surveys were done “by UST professors.” Seven UST faculty members conducted the surveys.
Proberz later clarified it didn’t mean to link UST to its surveys. “We agreed that we will never use the name of UST, we are doing this in our own individual capacity,” said Proberz political analyst and Arts and Letters Professor Reynald Trillana. “The outcomes (of the survey) do not reflect the belief and principles of the University. The fact that we are from UST is simply coincidental.”
Edmund Tayao, chief organizer of the project, echoed Trillana’s statement.
“We are not acting in our capacity as faculty members of the University. This is an independent effort of the Proberz as an organization,” he said.
Fr. Vice-Rector Juan Ponce, O.P., was set to call for a meeting regarding the issue, but cancelled it after Dr. Gil Gamilla, UST Faculty Union president, sent a letter of disclaimer to the Star.
“The news is misleading,” Gamilla’s letter, published on May 7, said. “While UST professors might have conducted the survey, this had no connection whatsoever with UST and the name of the University should not have been included in the news item.”
“There are two issues involved,” said Dr. Armando de Jesus, vice-rector for academic affairs. First was the issue of misrepresentation, which De Jesus said had been resolved by Gamilla’s letter; and the second was the issue of credibility.
Since it was Proberz’s first time to conduct a national survey, the credibility of their findings was questioned. Presidential campaign spokesman Michael Defensor, according to an interview by the Star, questioned the Proberz’s findings and contrasted them with those done by professional polling agencies such as the Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia.
According to De Jesus, there are certain scientific rules and guidelines to follow in conducting a survey. He also said that these rules might affect the credibility of the survey.
Trillana said they are willing to show the results of the survey. “If they simply question the credibility because they disagree with the results, mali iyon and we can do nothing about that.”
Tayao said it was unfair to dismiss an organization as not credible just because nobody knows it exist.
PRCI conducted the first survey from April 14 to 30, and found 42 per cent of 4,444 respondents picked Poe while only 29 percent chose President Macapagal Arroyo. Sen. Loren Legarda, who gained 47 percent of the population, had a five-percent lead over K-4 presidential bet Sen. Noli de Castro.
The results contradicted the SWS and Pulse Asia surveys, which showed Macapagal and De Castro leading.
According to Proberz’s Florence Ledesma, another Artlets professor, there was a 1.5 margin of error in the results. She said she used the multi-stage area probability sampling method.
She also explained that Proberz used the election statistics in 2001 to determine its sample size because the final number of registered voters for the May 10 polls was not yet available when the survey was conducted.
Proberz said that 76 percent of 36.5 million registered voters actually voted in 2001. Based on this, it predicted that a total of 27.8 million registered voters would flock to the poll on May 10. Poe’s lead of 13 per cent would then translate into 3.6 million votes. With reports from the Philippine Star.
