The killer quake that hit Yogkarata in Java, Indonesia last month has revived serious fears of a similar worst-case scenario in the Philippines. Like Indonesia, the country lies in the Pacific Ring of Fire, a zone of volcanoes and fault lines, making the Philippines prone to earthquakes.
A study by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) revealed that a 7.2-magnitude quake scenario hitting Manila could kill more than 50,000 people and injure over 100,000. The movement of the Marikina fault or the Valley Fault System (VFS), which according to the PHIVOLCS poses the greatest threat to Metro Manila, can produce possible violent ground shaking at intensity-nine.
Based on the data from the Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS), 38 per cent or 494,000 of the metro’s 1.3 million homes could suffer slight or severe damages in this worst case scenario.
MMEIRS is a two-year study completed in 2004. Since last year, PHIVOLCS has been campaigning for local governments to adopt disaster preparedness programs, but only Makati, Marikina, Muntinlupa, and Quezon City have responded to the call.
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Considered the last most destructive earthquake to hit the Philippines, the Casiguran earthquake in 1968, killed 268 people and injured 260 in Manila as a six-storey commercial building in Binondo collapsed during the quake. Also, several major buildings near Escolta and Binondo sustained varying levels of structural damages. Although the epicenter of the quake was 100 kilometers away, Manila still experienced intensity-seven tremble.
The question is, what more if the quake originates from the movement of the Marikina fault? I can only imagine.
If ever such a worse-case scenario occurs, UST will surely experience intense shaking. Engr. Lawrence Pangan of the Buildings and Grounds said that although the structural integrity of old buildings in UST like the earthquake-proof Main Bldg. has depreciated due to wear and tear, the buildings can still withstand up to intensity-nine earthquake.
According to PHILVOLCS Associate Scientist Dr. Leonila Bautista, PHIVOLCS installed a strong motion instrument, a type of seismograph, in UST five years ago. Designed to record strong shaking, the instrument feeds the PHILVOLCS main office with seismic vibrations in the area.
The agency advocates the importance of earthquake drills, and regular building inspection in earthquake preparedness. It has also developed a computer program capable of direct and instant assessment of post-earthquake hazards. The Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System or REDAS provides an estimate of the extent of seismic hazards to facilitate quick deployment of rescue operations.
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The summer internship I had in PHIVOLCS opened my eyes to the pressing need for disaster preparedness. Schools and communities should undergo earthquake safety drills, which PHIVOLCS personnel regularly give. Although present technology cannot yet predict earthquakes, innovations like the REDAS can help tone down earthquake’disastrous effects. Finally, the country, observers say, has an adequate Building Code, and so long as it is properly enforced in constructing homes, buildings and other infrastructures, large-scale destruction in lives and properties can be prevented.
